NextChapter White-Collar Long-Term Unemployment Index
The White-Collar Long-Term Unemployment Index tracks long-term unemployment among managers and professionals: people whose current or most recent job was in a management, business, financial or professional occupation and who have been unemployed 27 weeks or more, measured as a share of that labor force. It is seasonally adjusted, averaged over three months, and set so the 2019 average equals 100. A reading of 162 means long-term white-collar unemployment is running about 162% of its 2019 level.
Seasonally adjusted, 3-month moving average. The dashed horizontal line is the 2019 baseline (= 100). The red marker shows October 2025, which the Current Population Survey did not collect during the federal shutdown; the line breaks across it. Source: NextChapter calculation from U.S. Census Bureau Current Population Survey microdata.
The last 13 months
| Month | Index | WC unemployment rate | Out 27+ weeks (share of WC unemployed) | Out 27+ weeks, WC 45+ | Median weeks so far |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | 162 | 2.9% | 27.2% | 36.7% | 12 |
| Jul 2026 | 166 | 2.9% | 23.3% | 29.0% | 9 |
| Jun 2026 | 170 | 2.8% | 28.4% | 34.8% | 12 |
| May 2026 | 163 | 2.5% | 29.1% | 38.3% | 12 |
| Apr 2026 | 157 | 2.2% | 30.6% | 36.7% | 13 |
| Mar 2026 | 155 | 2.5% | 31.2% | 36.0% | 13 |
| Feb 2026 | 150 | 2.7% | 28.1% | 32.2% | 12 |
| Jan 2026 | 147 | 2.7% | 28.1% | 36.2% | 12 |
| Dec 2025 | 143 | 2.4% | 27.4% | 28.4% | 11 |
| Nov 2025 | 138 | 2.5% | 25.8% | 30.4% | 12 |
| Sep 2025 | 135 | 2.5% | 26.5% | 30.1% | 12 |
| Aug 2025 | 128 | 2.7% | 25.5% | 26.4% | 10 |
| Jul 2025 | 121 | 3.0% | 21.8% | 26.0% | 8 |
The index is seasonally adjusted; the other columns are not seasonally adjusted (NSA) and are best compared with the same month a year earlier. The split of the unemployed into job losers and job leavers is reported in the monthly Displacement Report rather than in this index series. October 2025 is absent because the survey was not collected that month.
Methodology
- Source. U.S. Census Bureau Current Population Survey (CPS) basic monthly public-use microdata. No NextChapter customer data is used.
- White-collar. Labor-force members whose current or most recent job is in Census major occupation group 1 (management, business and financial) or 2 (professional and related) — CPS variable PRMJOCC1 in (1, 2).
- Long-term. Unemployed 27 weeks or more (PRUNEDUR ≥ 27), as a share of the white-collar labor force. Estimates use the composite weight PWCMPWGT, the weight BLS uses for labor-force estimates.
- Index. That long-term rate, shown as a 3-month moving average, divided by its 2019 average and multiplied by 100 (2019 = 100).
- Seasonal adjustment. The index is seasonally adjusted with monthly factors; the companion columns above are not seasonally adjusted, so compare a month with the same month a year earlier rather than with an annual average.
- October 2025. The CPS was not collected that month during the federal shutdown; moving averages skip it and the chart leaves a gap.
How to cite
NextChapter. White-Collar Long-Term Unemployment Index (2019 = 100). Retrieved from https://launchyournextchapter.com/reports/white-collar-index. Data and charts may be republished with attribution under CC BY 4.0.